Today saw
the release of a new CNN poll in New Hampshire, showing Bernie Sanders beating
Hillary Clinton 60-33. The poll is certainly good news for Sanders, but as is
expected it has received far too much attention from the media and from Sanders
supporters.
This is just one poll. Today also saw the release of an ARG
poll[1] showing Sanders leading by
just 6 points in New Hampshire. Although ARG is a less reputable polling firm,[2] the lack of attention on
the ARG poll underscores the extent to which so many Sanders supporters want to
believe the most optimistic news possible about their candidate.
Sanders is at the moment probably winning in New Hampshire. But he probably isn’t winning by 27 points. Since January 1, there have been 7 polls released for the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. I list the margins between Sanders and Clinton below, with all data coming from Huffpost Pollster.[3]
PPP Ending 1/6: Clinton +3
NBC/WSJ Ending 1/7: Sanders +4
Fox Ending 1/7: Sanders +13
Monmouth Ending 1/10: Sanders +14
ARG Ending 1/10: Sanders +3
CNN Ending 1/18: Sanders +27
ARG Ending 1/18: Sanders +6
At this point, it seems unlikely that Clinton is leading in New Hampshire, given that she has led in just 1 out of the last 7 polls, and that one time was a small lead of only 3 points. But we simply don’t know whether Sanders is leading in the mid single digits, as some polls suggest, in the teens, as others point to, or in a blow-out 27 point lead as per the CNN poll. Caution is in order. Until subsequent polls also have Sanders winning by 27 points, it is best to assume that the actual margin is somewhere between an essentially tied race and a gargantuan 27 point lead.
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